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Título : Probabilistic estimation of annual lost economic production due to premature deaths because of earthquakes
Autor: M. Salgado
G. Bernal
M. L. Carreño
O.D. Cardona
A. Barbat
Fecha de publicación : 2015
Editorial : Human and Ecological risk assessment
Abstract: A methodology to estimate, in a probabilistic way, the annual cost to society of premature deaths because of earthquakes is proposed in this article. The methodology makes use of results obtained by meansof prospective and probabilistic seismic risk assessments where expected deaths caused by the collapse of buildings are obtained.Those results, combined with demographic and macroeconomic indicators such as the age distribution, life expectancy at birth, and per capita gross domestic product, are used to estimate the cost to societyin terms of lost productivity due to premature mortality because of earthquakes. The proposed methodology does not attempt to estimate nor assign a cost to human lives at any stage, but the oneassociated to lost productivity at the societal level. One of the descriptors of the methodology is part of the components of the disability adjusted life year, a widely used metric in the public health field that estimates the burden of diseases based mostly on historical data. As an example, the methodology is applied to Medell_?n, the second largest city of Colombia, finding that the cost of lost productivity due to premature mortality because of earthquakes has a similar order of magnitude to the direct physical losses in the public and private building stock calculated in a previous probabilistic seismicrisk assessment.
Cooperación: Universitat Politécnica de Catalunya, Universidad Nacional sede Manizales
Idioma: en
Tipo de documento: Artículo de investigación
Departamento: Barcelona
URI : http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11762/19808
Palabras clave : Probabilistic seismic risk assessment
average annual deaths
earthquake casualties
disability adjusted life year
CAPRA
DOI: 10.1080/10807039.2015.1095072
Citación : M. Salgado, G. Bernal, M. L. Carreño, O.D. Cardona, A. Barbat. (2015). Probabilistic estimation of annual lost economic production due to premature deaths because of earthquakes . Barcelona. Human and Ecological risk assessment
Aparece en las colecciones: Artículos de investigación

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