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UpdateProbabilisticModellingGlobalRisk(CIMNE_2014).pdf (94.59Mb)
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Titles alternatives
Global earthquake and Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment. Disaster Risk Assessment at Country level for earthquakes, tropical cyclones (wind and storm surge), floods, tsunami and volcanic eruptions.
Date
2015
Author
International Centre for Numerical Methods in Engineering
INGENIAR Ltda
Publisher
International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction - UNISDR
Language
en
Document type (spa)
Informe técnico
Key words
Global risk model
earthquake
volcanic eruptions
hazard
probabilistic risk assessment
floods
tropical cyclones
tsunami
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11762/19880
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Update on the probabilistic modelling of natural risks at global level: Global risk model

Abstract
This background paper presents the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology and results for the Global Risk Assessment of the UNISDR s Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 (GAR15). An update on some of the inputs used for the assessment of GAR13 (CIMNE et al., 2012, Ordaz et al. 2014a) was performed in order to incorporate them in the subsequent probabilistic seismic risk analysis for this new version. This section of this background paper presents the changes, improvements and updates considered in this analysis. As will be explained in more detail in the following sections, the changes consist mainly on the update of the earthquake catalogue and the ground motion prediction equations (GMPE).

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