Update on the probabilistic modelling of natural risks at global level: Global risk model

Abstract

This background paper presents the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology and results for the Global Risk Assessment of the UNISDR s Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 (GAR15). An update on some of the inputs used for the assessment of GAR13 (CIMNE et al., 2012, Ordaz et al. 2014a) was performed in order to incorporate them in the subsequent probabilistic seismic risk analysis for this new version. This section of this background paper presents the changes, improvements and updates considered in this analysis. As will be explained in more detail in the following sections, the changes consist mainly on the update of the earthquake catalogue and the ground motion prediction equations (GMPE).